IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v19y2026i2p102-d1855037.html

An Assessment of Economic and Geopolitical Risk Sensitivity in the Tourism Sector: Evidence from Firm-Level Performance and Stock Returns (2012–2025)

Author

Listed:
  • Yeşim Helhel

    (Department of Tourism Management, Tourism Faculty, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya, Turkey)

  • Selçuk Helhel

    (Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya, Turkey)

Abstract

This study examines how tourism companies in emerging markets respond to economic and geopolitical risks using a comprehensive panel data approach. Data from 23 tourism companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2025 were analyzed to assess their financial performance amid macroeconomic shocks and regional crises. The analysis addressed ‘multiple crisis’ scenarios such as the Russia–Turkey plane crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a significant earthquake in 2023. Panel regression results reveal that financial leverage (LEV) and GDP growth have a significant and statistically meaningful impact on profitability and stock performance compared to sectoral volume indicators (number of tourists and spending). The findings emphasize that tourism companies are highly sensitive not only to sectoral demand but also to overall economic confidence and macroeconomic stability. This study highlights that adopting flexible capital structures is essential for corporate resilience in uncertain times.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeşim Helhel & Selçuk Helhel, 2026. "An Assessment of Economic and Geopolitical Risk Sensitivity in the Tourism Sector: Evidence from Firm-Level Performance and Stock Returns (2012–2025)," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:19:y:2026:i:2:p:102-:d:1855037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/19/2/102/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/19/2/102/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:19:y:2026:i:2:p:102-:d:1855037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.