Financial Swing for Well-Being: Jazz Economy and Modelling the Social Return of Sustainable Capital Markets

This paper examines how shifts in sustainable capital markets influence societal well-being through the lens of a “Jazz Economy”, highlighting improvisation and adaptability in financial systems while grounding the analysis in empirical modelling. A panel of EUROSTAT indicators for 27 EU member states (2019–2022) was analyzed, including green bond issuance, market capitalization, environmental taxation, social spending, life expectancy, and subjective life satisfaction. Hierarchical clustering grouped these indicators into coherent patterns of “financial swings”, which were then linked to a composite quality-of-life index through an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), with results benchmarked against linear regression and random forests. The inclusion of time lags between fiscal, financial, and social indicators strengthens the causal interpretation of the results, moving beyond simple correlations. Findings show that higher public environmental protection spending combined with a strong net international investment position consistently predicts greater life satisfaction, whereas income and longevity alone do not guarantee improvements in subjective well-being, reflecting nonlinear interactions among fiscal, financial, and social variables. Robustness checks, including the exclusion of pandemic years, confirm the stability of outcomes. The study concludes that cohesive fiscal–financial strategies, integrating environmental policy and macro-financial resilience, are essential for enhancing quality of life and that sustainable finance can deliver tangible social benefits beyond metaphorical framing.