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SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Leontitsis

    (Smart Dubai Department, Dubai Design District, Building 1A, Dubai P.O. Box 555995, United Arab Emirates)

  • Abiola Senok

    (College of Medicine, Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Building 14, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai P.O. Box 505055, United Arab Emirates)

  • Alawi Alsheikh-Ali

    (College of Medicine, Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Building 14, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai P.O. Box 505055, United Arab Emirates)

  • Younus Al Nasser

    (Smart Dubai Department, Dubai Design District, Building 1A, Dubai P.O. Box 555995, United Arab Emirates)

  • Tom Loney

    (College of Medicine, Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Building 14, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai P.O. Box 505055, United Arab Emirates)

  • Aamena Alshamsi

    (Smart Dubai Department, Dubai Design District, Building 1A, Dubai P.O. Box 555995, United Arab Emirates)

Abstract

The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is widely used in epidemiology to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases with incubation periods. However, the SEIR model prototype is generic and not able to capture the unique nature of a novel viral pandemic such as SARS-CoV-2. We have developed and tested a specialized version of the SEIR model, called SEAHIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Isolated-Removed) model. This proposed model is able to capture the unique dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak including further dividing the Infected compartment into: (1) “Asymptomatic”, (2) “Isolated” and (3) “Hospitalized” to delineate the transmission specifics of each compartment and forecast healthcare requirements. The model also takes into consideration the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and different testing strategies on the number of confirmed cases. We used a publicly available dataset from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a case study to optimize the main parameters of the model and benchmarked it against the historical number of cases. The SEAHIR model was used by decision-makers in Dubai’s COVID-19 Command and Control Center to make timely decisions on developing testing strategies, increasing healthcare capacity, and implementing interventions to contain the spread of the virus. The novel six-compartment SEAHIR model could be utilized by decision-makers and researchers in other countries for current or future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Leontitsis & Abiola Senok & Alawi Alsheikh-Ali & Younus Al Nasser & Tom Loney & Aamena Alshamsi, 2021. "SEAHIR: A Specialized Compartmental Model for COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-11, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:5:p:2667-:d:511999
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang Xiang & Li Chen & Qunjie Peng & Bing Wang & Xiaobing Liu, 2022. "How Effective Is a Traffic Control Policy in Blocking the Spread of COVID-19? A Case Study of Changsha, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Suad Ajab & Balázs Ádam & Muna Al Hammadi & Najwa Al Bastaki & Mohamed Al Junaibi & Abdulmajeed Al Zubaidi & Mona Hegazi & Michal Grivna & Suhail Kady & Erik Koornneef & Raquel Neves & António Sousa U, 2021. "Occupational Health of Frontline Healthcare Workers in the United Arab Emirates during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Snapshot of Summer 2020," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Yaming Zhang & Jiaqi Zhang & Yaya Hamadou Koura & Changyuan Feng & Yanyuan Su & Wenjie Song & Linghao Kong, 2023. "Multiple Concurrent Causal Relationships and Multiple Governance Pathways for Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies in Pandemics: A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 102 Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Joseph Pateras & Ashwin Vaidya & Preetam Ghosh, 2022. "Network Thermodynamics-Based Scalable Compartmental Model for Multi-Strain Epidemics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Victoria Chebotaeva & Paula A. Vasquez, 2023. "Erlang-Distributed SEIR Epidemic Models with Cross-Diffusion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Øverby, Harald & Audestad, Jan A. & Szalkowski, Gabriel Andy, 2023. "Compartmental market models in the digital economy—extension of the Bass model to complex economic systems," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    7. Derek Huang & Huanyu Tao & Qilong Wu & Sheng-You Huang & Yi Xiao, 2021. "Modeling of the Long-Term Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-17, July.

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