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Adiposity and Long-Term Adiposity Change Are Associated with Incident Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study in Southwest China

Author

Listed:
  • Yun Chen

    (School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
    These authors have contributed equally to this work and share the first authorship.)

  • Yiying Wang

    (Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China
    These authors have contributed equally to this work and share the first authorship.)

  • Kelin Xu

    (School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China)

  • Jie Zhou

    (Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China)

  • Lisha Yu

    (Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China)

  • Na Wang

    (School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China)

  • Tao Liu

    (Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China)

  • Chaowei Fu

    (School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China)

Abstract

In order to estimate the associations of different adiposity indicators and long-term adiposity changes with risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM), we conducted a 10-year prospective cohort study of 7441 adults in Guizhou, China, from 2010 to 2020. Adiposity was measured at baseline and follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). A total of 764 new diabetes cases were identified over an average follow-up of 7.06 years. Adiposity indicators, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and long-term adiposity changes (both weight change and WC change) were significantly associated with an increased risk of T2DM (adjusted HRs: 1.16–1.48). Significant non-linear relationships were found between weight/WC change and incident T2DM. Compared with subjects with stable WC from baseline to follow-up visit, the subjects with WC gain ≥9 cm had a 1.61-fold greater risk of T2DM; those with WC loss had a 30% lower risk. Furthermore, the associations were stronger among participants aged 40 years or older, women, and Han Chinese. Preventing weight or WC gain and promoting maintenance of normal body weight or WC are important approaches for diabetes prevention, especially for the elderly, women, and Han Chinese.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun Chen & Yiying Wang & Kelin Xu & Jie Zhou & Lisha Yu & Na Wang & Tao Liu & Chaowei Fu, 2021. "Adiposity and Long-Term Adiposity Change Are Associated with Incident Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study in Southwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:21:p:11481-:d:669489
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ram D. Joshi & Chandra K. Dhakal, 2021. "Predicting Type 2 Diabetes Using Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-17, July.
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