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The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ines Corcuera Hotz

    (Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK)

  • Shakoor Hajat

    (Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK)

Abstract

The epidemiological research relating mortality and hospital admissions to ambient temperature is well established. However, less is known about the effect temperature has on Accident and Emergency (A&E) department attendances. Time-series regression analyses were conducted to investigate the effect of temperature for a range of cause- and age-specific attendances in Greater London (LD) between 2007 to 2012. A seasonally adjusted Poisson regression model was used to estimate the percent change in daily attendances per 1 °C increase in temperature. The risk of overall attendance increased by 1.0% (95% CI 0.8, 1.4) for all ages and 1.4% (1.2, 1.5) among 0- to 15-year-olds. A smaller but significant increase in risk was found for cardiac, respiratory, cerebrovascular and psychiatric presentations. Importantly, for fracture-related attendances, the risk rose by 1.1% (0.7, 1.5) per 1 °C increase in temperature above the identified temperature threshold of 16 °C, with the highest increase of 2.1% (1.5, 3.0) seen among 0- to 15-year-olds. There is a positive association between increasing temperatures and A&E department attendance, with the risk appearing highest in children and the most deprived areas. A&E departments are vulnerable to increased demand during hot weather and therefore need to be adequately prepared to address associated health risks posed by climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ines Corcuera Hotz & Shakoor Hajat, 2020. "The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:6:p:1957-:d:333347
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gibney, Garreth & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Cullinan, John, 2023. "Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Kendra R. Cicci & Alana Maltby & Kristin K. Clemens & Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera & Anna C. Gunz & Éric Lavigne & Piotr Wilk, 2022. "High Temperatures and Cardiovascular-Related Morbidity: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Francesco Guolo & Elisa Stivanello & Lorenzo Pizzi & Teodoro Georgiadis & Letizia Cremonini & Muriel Assunta Musti & Marianna Nardino & Filippo Ferretti & Paolo Marzaroli & Vincenza Perlangeli & Paolo, 2022. "Emergency Department Visits and Summer Temperatures in Bologna, Northern Italy, 2010–2019: A Case-Crossover Study and Geographically Weighted Regression Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-15, November.

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