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40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore

Author

Listed:
  • Reuben Ng

    (Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 259772, Singapore
    Lloyds Register Foundation Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117602, Singapore)

  • Si Qi Lim

    (Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 259772, Singapore)

  • Su Ying Saw

    (Ministry of Health, Singapore 169854, Singapore)

  • Kelvin Bryan Tan

    (Ministry of Health, Singapore 169854, Singapore)

Abstract

Against a rapidly aging population, projections are done to size up the demand for long-term care (LTC) services for long-range policy planning. These projections are typically focused on functional factors such as disability. Recent studies indicate the importance of social factors, for example, socially isolated seniors living alone are more likely to be institutionalized, resulting in higher demand for LTC services. This is one the first known studies to complete a 40-year projection of LTC demand based on disability and social isolation. The primary micro dataset was the Retirement and Health Survey, Singapore’s first nationally representative longitudinal study of noninstitutionalized older adults aged 45 to 85 with over 15,000 respondents. Disability prevalence across the mild to severe spectrum is projected to increase five-fold over the next 40 years, and the number of socially isolated elders living alone is projected to grow four-fold. Regression models of living arrangements revealed interesting ethnic differences: Malay elders are 2.6 times less likely to live alone than their Chinese counterparts, controlling for marital status, age, and housing type. These projections provide a glimpse of the growing demand for LTC services for a rapidly aging Singapore and underscore the need to shore up community-based resources to enable seniors to age-in-place.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuben Ng & Si Qi Lim & Su Ying Saw & Kelvin Bryan Tan, 2020. "40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-8, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:14:p:4950-:d:382302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reuben Ng, 2018. "Cloud Computing in Singapore: Key Drivers and Recommendations for a Smart Nation," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(4), pages 39-47.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reuben Ng & Kelvin Bryan Tan, 2021. "Implementing an Individual-Centric Discharge Process across Singapore Public Hospitals," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-7, August.
    2. Reuben Ng & Heather G. Allore & Becca R. Levy, 2020. "Self-Acceptance and Interdependence Promote Longevity: Evidence From a 20-year Prospective Cohort Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Mythily Subramaniam & Yen Sin Koh & P. V. AshaRani & Fiona Devi & Saleha Shafie & Peizhi Wang & Edimansyah Abdin & Janhavi Ajit Vaingankar & Chee Fang Sum & Eng Sing Lee & Siow Ann Chong, 2021. "The Prevalence and Correlates of Disability in Singapore: Results from a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Chien-Lung Chan & Chi-Chang Chang, 2020. "Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-7, September.
    5. Chien-Lung Chan & Chi-Chang Chang, 2022. "Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-9, July.
    6. Reuben Ng, 2021. "Societal Age Stereotypes in the U.S. and U.K. from a Media Database of 1.1 Billion Words," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-10, August.
    7. Mikiko Terashima & Kate Clark, 2021. "The Precarious Absence of Disability Perspectives in Planning Research," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(1), pages 120-132.
    8. Reuben Ng & Nicole Indran, 2021. "Societal Narratives on Caregivers in Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-15, October.
    9. John Rodwell & Thomas Hendry & Dianne Johnson, 2022. "A Parsimonious Taxonomy of The Newly Retired: Spousal and Disability Combinations Shape Part or Complete Retirement," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-13, October.

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