IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i24p5156-d298837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rainfall Trends and Malaria Occurrences in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Abiodun Adeola

    (South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
    UP Institute for Sustainable Malaria Control, School for Health Systems and Public Health, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Katlego Ncongwane

    (South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa)

  • Gbenga Abiodun

    (Department of Mathematics, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275, USA)

  • Thabo Makgoale

    (South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa)

  • Hannes Rautenbach

    (UP Institute for Sustainable Malaria Control, School for Health Systems and Public Health, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa
    Faculty of Natural Sciences, Akademia, Centurion 0157, South Africa)

  • Joel Botai

    (South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
    Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa
    School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville Campus, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa)

  • Omolola Adisa

    (South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
    Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa
    Department of Information Technology, Central University of Technology, Private Bag X20539, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa)

  • Christina Botai

    (South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa)

Abstract

This contribution aims to investigate the influence of monthly total rainfall variations on malaria transmission in the Limpopo Province. For this purpose, monthly total rainfall was interpolated from daily rainfall data from weather stations. Annual and seasonal trends, as well as cross-correlation analyses, were performed on time series of monthly total rainfall and monthly malaria cases in five districts of Limpopo Province for the period of 1998 to 2017. The time series analysis indicated that an average of 629.5 mm of rainfall was received over the period of study. The rainfall has an annual variation of about 0.46%. Rainfall amount varied within the five districts, with the northeastern part receiving more rainfall. Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that the total monthly rainfall with one to two months lagged effect is significant in malaria transmission across all the districts. The strongest correlation was noticed in Vhembe (r = 0.54; p -value = <0.001), Mopani (r = 0.53; p -value = <0.001), Waterberg (r = 0.40; p -value =< 0.001), Capricorn (r = 0.37; p -value = <0.001) and lowest in Sekhukhune (r = 0.36; p -value = <0.001). Seasonally, the results indicated that about 68% variation in malaria cases in summer—December, January, and February (DJF)—can be explained by spring—September, October, and November (SON)—rainfall in Vhembe district. Both annual and seasonal analyses indicated that there is variation in the effect of rainfall on malaria across the districts and it is seasonally dependent. Understanding the dynamics of climatic variables annually and seasonally is essential in providing answers to malaria transmission among other factors, particularly with respect to the abrupt spikes of the disease in the province.

Suggested Citation

  • Abiodun Adeola & Katlego Ncongwane & Gbenga Abiodun & Thabo Makgoale & Hannes Rautenbach & Joel Botai & Omolola Adisa & Christina Botai, 2019. "Rainfall Trends and Malaria Occurrences in Limpopo Province, South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:24:p:5156-:d:298837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/24/5156/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/24/5156/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abiodun M. Adeola & Joel O. Botai & Hannes Rautenbach & Omolola M. Adisa & Katlego P. Ncongwane & Christina M. Botai & Temitope C. Adebayo-Ojo, 2017. "Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thandi Kapwata & Zamantimande Kunene & Bianca Wernecke & Samantha Lange & Guy Howard & Anisha Nijhawan & Caradee Y. Wright, 2022. "Applying a WASH Risk Assessment Tool in a Rural South African Setting to Identify Risks and Opportunities for Climate Resilient Communities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-16, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiangtao Liu & Yueling Ma & Yuhong Wang & Sheng Li & Shuyu Liu & Xiaotao He & Lanyu Li & Lei Guo & Jingping Niu & Bin Luo & Kai Zhang, 2019. "The Impact of Cold and Heat on Years of Life Lost in a Northwestern Chinese City with Temperate Continental Climate," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Matthew F. Chersich & Caradee Y. Wright & Francois Venter & Helen Rees & Fiona Scorgie & Barend Erasmus, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Makwelantle Asnath Sehlabana & Daniel Maposa & Alexander Boateng, 2020. "Modelling Malaria Incidence in the Limpopo Province, South Africa: Comparison of Classical and Bayesian Methods of Estimation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Samuel Kwasi Opoku & Walter Leal Filho & Fudjumdjum Hubert & Oluwabunmi Adejumo, 2021. "Climate Change and Health Preparedness in Africa: Analysing Trends in Six African Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-29, April.
    5. Muhammad Farooq Umer & Shumaila Zofeen & Abdul Majeed & Wenbiao Hu & Xin Qi & Guihua Zhuang, 2019. "Effects of Socio-Environmental Factors on Malaria Infection in Pakistan: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-12, April.
    6. Eric Kalunda Panzi & Ngianga II Kandala & Emery Luzolo Kafinga & Bertin Mbenga Tampwo & Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala, 2022. "Forecasting Malaria Morbidity to 2036 Based on Geo-Climatic Factors in the Democratic Republic of Congo," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-28, September.
    7. Eric Kalunda Panzi & Léon Ngongo Okenge & Eugénie Hamuli Kabali & Félicien Tshimungu & Angèle Keti Dilu & Felix Mulangu & Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala, 2022. "Geo-Climatic Factors of Malaria Morbidity in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2001 to 2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Nicholas Ngepah & Regina Conselho Mwiinga, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change on Gender Inequality in the Labour Market: A Case Study of South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-28, October.
    9. Gbenga J. Abiodun & Olusola S. Makinde & Abiodun M. Adeola & Kevin Y. Njabo & Peter J. Witbooi & Ramses Djidjou-Demasse & Joel O. Botai, 2019. "A Dynamical and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Modelling of Malaria Incidence in Limpopo Province, South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-19, June.
    10. João L. Ferrão & Dominique Earland & Anísio Novela & Roberto Mendes & Alberto Tungadza & Kelly M. Searle, 2021. "Malaria Temporal Variation and Modelling Using Time-Series in Sussundenga District, Mozambique," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-16, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:24:p:5156-:d:298837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.