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Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China

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  • Han Zhang

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Yali Si

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaofeng Wang

    (Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Services, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Peng Gong

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Bacillary dysentery has long been a considerable health problem in southwest China, however, the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic and physical environmental factors and the disease is not fully understand. It is also not clear where exactly the bacillary dysentery risk is potentially high. Based on the result of hotspot analysis, we generated training samples to build a spatial distribution model. Univariate analyses, autocorrelation and multi-collinearity examinations and stepwise selection were then applied to screen the potential causative factors. Multiple logistic regressions were finally applied to quantify the effects of key factors. A bootstrapping strategy was adopted while fitting models. The model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kappa and independent validation samples. Hotspot counties were mainly mountainous lands in southwest China. Higher risk of bacillary dysentery was found associated with underdeveloped socio-economy, proximity to farmland or water bodies, higher environmental temperature, medium relative humidity and the distribution of the Tibeto-Burman ethnicity. A predictive risk map with high accuracy (88.19%) was generated. The high-risk areas are mainly located in the mountainous lands where the Tibeto-Burman people live, especially in the basins, river valleys or other flat places in the mountains with relatively lower elevation and a warmer climate. In the high-risk areas predicted by this study, improving the economic development, investment in health care and the construction of infrastructures for safe water supply, waste treatment and sewage disposal, and improving health related education could reduce the disease risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Zhang & Yali Si & Xiaofeng Wang & Peng Gong, 2017. "Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:7:p:782-:d:104657
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chengjing Nie & Hairong Li & Linsheng Yang & Gemei Zhong & Lan Zhang, 2014. "Socio-Economic Factors of Bacillary Dysentery Based on Spatial Correlation Analysis in Guangxi Province, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-6, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Congcong Yan & Yijuan Chen & Ziping Miao & Shuwen Qin & Hua Gu & Jian Cai, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Bacillary Dysentery from 2005 to 2017 in Zhejiang Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Lingbo Liu & Yuni Zhong & Siya Ao & Hao Wu, 2019. "Exploring the Relevance of Green Space and Epidemic Diseases Based on Panel Data in China from 2007 to 2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Hania Rahimi-Ardabili & Thomas Astell-Burt & Phi-Yen Nguyen & Juan Zhang & Yu Jiang & Guang-Hui Dong & Xiaoqi Feng, 2021. "Green Space and Health in Mainland China: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-22, September.

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