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Logistic-Based Forecasting Exercise on the Availability of the Materials Currently Identified as the Most Critical for the Energy Transition

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  • Tessaleno Devezas

    (Engineering Department, Atlantica University Institute, 2730-036 Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper presents an analytical forecasting exercise about the criticality of an important collection of materials, namely copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, and rare earth, recognized today as fundamental materials for the energy transition. The criticality of this set of materials is scrutinized not only in terms of the comparison of production/reserves but also in terms of geopolitical and environmental aspects related to their exploration. For this quantitative forecasting exercise, a logistic equation tool was used to estimate future accumulated production considering the logistic extrapolation of the current level of production. Conclusions are drawn about the possibility of the depletion of this set of materials, as well as other environmental and/or geopolitical risks involved in their massive mining explorations.

Suggested Citation

  • Tessaleno Devezas, 2025. "Logistic-Based Forecasting Exercise on the Availability of the Materials Currently Identified as the Most Critical for the Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-23, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:17:p:4686-:d:1741502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2021. "Economic drivers of commodity volatility: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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