Farmland Consolidation Suitable for Agricultural Machinery (FCAM) and Agricultural Production Resilience: Evidence from 330 Cities in China

Improving farmland conditions suitable for agricultural machinery is important for enhancing agricultural production resilience. Farmland consolidation suitable for agricultural machinery (FCAM) is regarded as an effective means. Using panel data from 330 Chinese cities from 2013 to 2023, this study evaluated the potential of FCAM and agricultural production resilience. The potential of FCAM was defined as the broader suitability of farmland for mechanized operations rather than the direct intensity of implemented FCAM policies. Their spatial association and quantitative relationship were then examined. The results showed that the potential of FCAM and agricultural production resilience both increased during the study period, with growth rates of 2.61% and 3.13%, respectively, and both followed a two-stage growth pattern. Spatially, high values were mainly concentrated in the Northeast China Plain, while low values were found in the Southwest mountainous region, showing a clear northeast–southwest gradient. Bivariate spatial correlation analyses indicated a significant, increasing spatial association between the potential of FCAM and agricultural production resilience, suggesting that farmland geographical endowments strongly shape their spatial distributions. Regression results further showed that the potential of FCAM is positively associated with agricultural production resilience, indicating that improving mechanization suitability can enhance the robustness, adaptability, and transformability of agricultural production systems. The estimated inverted U-shaped relationship further indicates diminishing marginal returns at higher potential of FCAM, while most regions remained below the turning point during the study period. These findings provide evidence for regionally differentiated and resilience-oriented FCAM schemes.