Crop Farming Green Transition Under Ecological Fragility: Performance Assessment, Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Barriers in the Northwest Arid Region of China

Amid the growing need to reconcile agricultural development with ecological security in ecologically fragile regions, CFGT has become a critical pathway for shifting agricultural systems from vulnerability toward resilience. The NARC is a typical ecologically fragile area. It faces unprecedented pressure from natural conditions and unsustainable agricultural practices. Developing a rigorous, logically coherent indicator system, together with a systematic assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of regional CFGT, is essential for objectively identifying its current developmental stage, revealing key bottlenecks, and forming policy optimization and transition acceleration. This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system based on the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework. Using panel data from six provinces in the NARC from 2004 to 2023, the Entropy Weight Method is applied to quantify CFGT performance. Kernel Density Estimation and the Coefficient of Variation Method are further employed to examine the spatiotemporal evolution, distributional dynamics, and regional disparities of CFGT. In addition, an obstacle severity model is used to identify the key constraints affecting CFGT. The results show that (1) the CFGT performance of the NARC exhibited a substantial improvement during 2004–2023. Its temporal evolution indicates a transition from an initial adjustment phase to steady advancement phase, followed by a more rapid improvement phase after 2017. (2) The overall enhancement of CFGT performance was mainly driven by improvements in the Driving Force and Impact subsystems. (3) CFGT performance exhibited marked regional heterogeneity across the six provinces. Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang formed the leading group, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia occupied intermediate positions, while Gansu consistently recorded the weakest performance. (4) The major constraints on CFGT were concentrated in resource-state conditions and governance response capacity. Overall, this paper provides an assessment framework based on evidence for understanding CFGT in ecologically fragile arid regions, offering policy implications for promoting resilient agricultural green development.