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Research on Ginger Price Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning

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Listed:
  • Fengyu Li

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
    Key Laboratory of Huanghuaihai Smart Agricultural Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tai’an 271018, China
    Agricultural Big Data Research Center, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Xianyong Meng

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
    Key Laboratory of Huanghuaihai Smart Agricultural Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tai’an 271018, China
    Agricultural Big Data Research Center, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Ke Zhu

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
    Key Laboratory of Huanghuaihai Smart Agricultural Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tai’an 271018, China
    Agricultural Big Data Research Center, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Jun Yan

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
    Key Laboratory of Huanghuaihai Smart Agricultural Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tai’an 271018, China
    Agricultural Big Data Research Center, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Lining Liu

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
    Key Laboratory of Huanghuaihai Smart Agricultural Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tai’an 271018, China
    Agricultural Big Data Research Center, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Pingzeng Liu

    (School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
    Key Laboratory of Huanghuaihai Smart Agricultural Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tai’an 271018, China
    Agricultural Big Data Research Center, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

Abstract

In order to ensure the price stability of niche agricultural products and enhance farmers’ income, the study delves into the pattern of the ginger price fluctuation rule and its main influencing factors. By combining seasonal decomposition STL, long and short-term memory network LSTM, attention mechanism ATT and Kolmogorov-Arnold network, a combined STL-LSTM-ATT-KAN prediction model is developed, and the model parameters are finely tuned by using multi-population adaptive particle swarm optimisation algorithm (AMP-PSO). Based on an in-depth analysis of actual data on ginger prices over the past decade, the STL-LSTM-ATT-KAN model demonstrated excellent performance in terms of prediction accuracy: its mean absolute error (MAE) was 0.111, mean squared error (MSE) was 0.021, root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.146, and the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was 0.998. This study provides the Ginger Industry, agricultural trade, farmers and policymakers with digitalised and intelligent aids, which are important for improving market monitoring, risk control, competitiveness and guaranteeing the stability of supply and price.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengyu Li & Xianyong Meng & Ke Zhu & Jun Yan & Lining Liu & Pingzeng Liu, 2025. "Research on Ginger Price Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:6:p:596-:d:1609899
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feihu Sun & Xianyong Meng & Yan Zhang & Yan Wang & Hongtao Jiang & Pingzeng Liu, 2023. "Agricultural Product Price Forecasting Methods: A Review," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Yeong Hyeon Gu & Dong Jin & Helin Yin & Ri Zheng & Xianghua Piao & Seong Joon Yoo, 2022. "Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices Using Dual Input Attention LSTM," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Changxia Sun & Menghao Pei & Bo Cao & Saihan Chang & Haiping Si, 2023. "A Study on Agricultural Commodity Price Prediction Model Based on Secondary Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory Network," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, December.
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