Spatiotemporal Agricultural Drought Assessment and Mapping Its Vulnerability in a Semi-Arid Region Exhibiting Aridification Trends

Agricultural drought, increasingly intensified by climate change, poses a significant threat to food security and water resources in semi-arid regions, including Türkiye’s Konya Closed Basin. This study evaluates six satellite-derived indices—Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Evapotranspiration Condition Index (ETCI), and Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI)—to monitor agricultural drought (2001–2024) and proposes a drought vulnerability map using a novel Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Integrating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), and Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) datasets, the DVI combines these indices with weighted contributions (VHI: 0.27, ETCI: 0.25, SMCI: 0.22, PCI: 0.26) to spatially classify vulnerability. The results highlight severe drought episodes in 2001, 2007, 2008, 2014, 2016, and 2020, with extreme vulnerability concentrated in the southern and central basin, driven by prolonged vegetation stress and soil moisture deficits. The DVI reveals that 38% of the agricultural area in the basin is classified as moderately vulnerable, while 29% is critically vulnerable—comprising 22% under high vulnerability and 7% under extreme vulnerability. The proposed drought vulnerability map offers an actionable framework to support targeted water management strategies and policy interventions in drought-prone agricultural systems.