Energy Simulation-Driven Life-Cycle Costing of Gobi Solar Greenhouses: Stakeholder-Focused Analysis for Tomato Production

Sustainable agricultural production systems are a global consensus. Their life-cycle economic feasibility is essential for long-term sustainable goals. This study integrates life-cycle costing with building energy simulation to assess the cost performance of conventional and innovative greenhouse tomato production systems in China’s Hexi Corridor, using dynamic thermal load modeling to overcome empirical-data limitations in traditional life-cycle costing. Under the facility-lease farming model, construction companies incur life-cycle costs of CNY 10.53·m −2 ·yr −1 for the conventional concrete-walled Gobi solar greenhouse and CNY 10.45·m −2 ·yr −1 for the innovative flexible insulation-walled Gobi solar greenhouses. However, farmer greenhouse contractors achieve 10.5% lower life-cycle costs for tomato cultivation in the conventional structure (CNY 2.87·kg −1 ·yr −1 ) than in the innovative one (CNY 3.21·kg −1 ·yr −1 ) due to 52.6% heating energy savings from the integrated active solar thermal systems. Furthermore, life-cycle cash flow analysis confirms construction companies incur non-viable returns, while farmers achieve substantial profits, with 52.5% higher cumulative profits obtained in the conventional greenhouse than the innovative greenhouse. This profit allocation imbalance threatens sustainability. Our pioneering stakeholder-perspective assessment provides evidence-based strategies for government, investors, and farmers to optimize resource allocation and promote sustainable Gobi agriculture.