Satellite-Derived Multi-Temporal Palm Trees and Urban Cover Changes to Understand Drivers of Changes in Agroecosystem in Al-Ahsa Oasis Using a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) Model

Palm trees, referred to here as vegetation cover (VC), provide essential ecosystem services in an arid Oasis. However, because of socioeconomic transformation, the rapid urban expansion of major cities and villages at the expense of agricultural lands of the Al-Ahsa Oasis, Saudi Arabia, has placed enormous pressure on the palm-growing area and led to the loss of productive land. These challenges highlight the need for robust, integrative methods to assess their impact on the agroecosystem. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal fluctuations in vegetation cover and its effect on the agroecosystem to determine the potential influencing factors. Data from Landsat satellites, including TM (Thematic mapper of Landsat 5), ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic mapper plus of Landsat 7), and OIL (Landsat 8) and Sentinel-2A imageries were used for analysis, while GeoEye-1 satellite images as well as socioeconomic data were applied for result validation. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to extract pure endmembers, facilitating Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) for mapping vegetation and urban fractions. The spatiotemporal change patterns were analyzed using time- and space-oriented detection algorithms. Results indicated that vegetation fraction patterns differed significantly; pixels with high fraction values declined significantly from 1990 to 2020. The mean vegetation fraction value varied from 0.79 to 0.37. This indicates that a reduction in palm trees was quickly occurring at a decreasing rate of −14.24%. Results also suggest that vegetation fractions decreased significantly between 1990 and 2020, and this decrease had the greatest effect on the agroecosystem situation of the Oasis. We assessed urban sprawl, and our results indicated substantial variability in average urban fractions: 0.208%, 0.247%, 0.699%, and 0.807% in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Overall, the data revealed an association between changes in palm tree fractions and urban ones, supporting strategic vegetation and/or agricultural management to enhance the agroecosystem in an arid Oasis.