The Impact of Rural Digital Economy Development on Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency: A Study of the N-Shaped Relationship

This study investigates the impact of rural digital economy development on agricultural carbon emission efficiency, aiming to elucidate the intrinsic mechanisms and pathways through which digital technology enables low-carbon transformation in agriculture, thereby contributing to the achievement of agricultural carbon neutrality goals. Based on provincial-level panel data from China spanning 2011 to 2022, this study examines the relationship between the rural digital economy and agricultural carbon emission efficiency, along with its underlying mechanisms, using bidirectional fixed effects models, mediation effect analysis, and Spatial Durbin Models. The results indicate the following: (1) A significant N-shaped-curve relationship exists between rural digital economy development and agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Specifically, agricultural carbon emission efficiency exhibits a three-phase trajectory of “increase, decrease, and renewed increase” as the rural digital economy advances, ultimately driving a sustained improvement in efficiency. (2) Industrial integration acts as a critical mediating mechanism. Rural digital economy development accelerates the formation of the N-shaped curve by promoting the integration between agriculture and other sectors. (3) Spatial spillover effects significantly influence agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Due to geographical proximity, regional diffusion, learning, and demonstration effects, local agricultural carbon emission efficiency fluctuates with changes in neighboring regions’ digital economy development levels. (4) The relationship between rural digital economy development and agricultural carbon emission efficiency exhibits a significant inverted N-shaped pattern in regions with higher marketization levels, planting-dominated areas of southeast China, and digital economy demonstration zones. Further analysis reveals that within rural digital economy development, production digitalization and circulation digitalization demonstrate a more pronounced inverted N-shaped relationship with agricultural carbon emission efficiency. This study proposes strategic recommendations to maximize the positive impact of the rural digital economy on agricultural carbon emission efficiency, unlock its spatially differentiated contribution potential, identify and leverage inflection points of the N-shaped relationship between digital economy development and emission efficiency, and implement tailored policy portfolios—ultimately facilitating agriculture’s green and low-carbon transition.