Improving Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Under Saline Stress by Integrating Sentinel-2 and Soil Salt Content Using Random Forest

Accurate estimation of winter wheat yield under saline stress is crucial for addressing food security challenges and optimizing agricultural management in regional soils. This study proposed a method integrating Sentinel-2 data and field-measured soil salt content (SC) using a random forest (RF) method to improve yield estimation of winter wheat in Kenli County, a typical saline area in China’s Yellow River Delta. First, feature importance analysis of a temporal vegetation index (VI) and salinity index (SI) across all growth periods were achieved to select main parameters. Second, yield models of winter wheat were developed in VI-, SI-, VI + SI-, and VI + SI + SC-based groups. Furthermore, error assessment and spatial yield mapping were analyzed in detail. The results demonstrated that feature importance varied by growth periods. SI dominated in pre-jointing periods, while VI was better in the post-jointing phase. The VI + SI + SC-based model achieved better accuracy (R 2 = 0.78, RMSE = 720.16 kg/ha) than VI-based (R 2 = 0.71), SI-based (R 2 = 0.69), and VI + SI-based (R 2 = 0.77) models. Error analysis results suggested that the residuals were reduced as the input parameters increased, and the VI + SI + SC-based model showed a good consistency with the field-measured yields. The spatial distribution of winter wheat yield using the VI + SI + SC-based model showed significant differences, and average yields in no, slight, moderate, and severe salinity areas were 7945, 7258, 5217, and 4707 kg/ha, respectively. This study can provide a reference for winter wheat yield estimation and crop production improvement in saline regions.