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Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi in China Using a MaxEnt-Based Ecological Niche Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaorui Zhang

    (Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

  • Haiwen Wang

    (Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

  • Tingting Dai

    (Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
    Advanced Analysis and Testing Center, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

Abstract

Phytophthora cinnamomi is a globally distributed plant-pathogenic oomycete that threatens economically important crops, including Lauraceae , Bromeliaceae , Fabaceae , and Solanaceae . Utilizing species occurrence records and 35 environmental variables (|R| < 0.8), we employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis to systematically predict the potential geographical distribution of P. cinnamomi under current (1970–2000) and future (2030S, 2050S, 2070S, 2090S) climate scenarios across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that currently suitable habitats cover the majority of China’s provinces (>50% of their areas), with only sporadic low-suitability zones in Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The most influential environmental variables were the mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, and elevation. Under future climate scenarios, new suitable habitats emerged in high-latitude regions, while the highly suitable area expanded significantly, with the distribution centroid shifting northeastward. This study employs predictive modeling to elucidate the future distribution patterns of P. cinnamomi in China, providing a theoretical foundation for establishing a regional-scale disease early warning system and formulating ecological management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaorui Zhang & Haiwen Wang & Tingting Dai, 2025. "Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi in China Using a MaxEnt-Based Ecological Niche Model," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:13:p:1411-:d:1691283
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chenshun Xie & Yuntian Wu & Zhonghao Wu & Hao Cao & Xiaohui Huang & Feng Cui & Shuai Meng & Jie Chen, 2025. "Bacillus velezensis TCS001 Enhances the Resistance of Hickory to Phytophthora cinnamomi and Reshapes the Rhizosphere Microbial Community," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. François Keck & Tianna Peller & Roman Alther & Cécilia Barouillet & Rosetta Blackman & Eric Capo & Teofana Chonova & Marjorie Couton & Lena Fehlinger & Dominik Kirschner & Mara Knüsel & Lucile Muneret, 2025. "The global human impact on biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 641(8062), pages 395-400, May.
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