Dynamics of Aromia bungii (Faldermann, 1835) ( Coleoptera , Cerambycidae ) Distribution in China Amidst Climate Change: Dual Insights from MaxEnt and Meta-Analysis

Aromia bungii Faldermann ( Coleoptera , Cerambycidae ) is one of the most serious stem-boring pests that infests Rosaceae fruit trees and ornamental trees. This study, based on occurrence data for this species, employed the MaxEnt model and meta-analysis method to predict the distribution range and centroid movement of A. bungii under the current and future climates in China. The study also analyzed the impact of environmental variables on its distribution. The meta-analysis results revealed that A. bungii has the highest distribution density within the altitude range of 0 to 300 m. The MaxEnt model identified six key environmental variables influencing the distribution of A. bungii , namely the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15), and altitude. Under the current climate conditions, the most suitable distribution range of A. bungii is located between 92.6–120.38° E and 16.17–44.46° N, with highly suitable areas predominantly found in the North China Plain, the Shandong Hills, the area around the Bohai Sea, and the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, covering a total area of 41.43 × 10 4 km 2 . Scenarios related to the future climate indicate a shift in the suitable habitats of A. bungii towards higher latitudes, with the centroid of the potentially suitable area shifting towards the northeast. This study provides supporting information for the control and management of this pest.