“Emergence” and “Dissolution” of Green Innovation Bubbles in Power Industry Chain Enterprises

The clean and low-carbon transition of new-type power systems imposes increasingly stringent demands on green technology innovation among enterprises along the power industry chain. Identifying the drivers and potential remedies for green innovation bubble can offer China-originated solutions to the sustainable development of the global power sector. This paper focuses on Chinese power industry chain enterprises over the period 2016–2023. Drawing on the AMO framework, a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing ability, motivation, and opportunity is developed. Double machine learning (DDML) is employed to perform benchmark regression and causal identification. Subsequently, gradient boosting trees (GBT) combined with SHAP interpretability analysis are applied to uncover nonlinear relationships and heterogeneous transmission pathways among key variables. The results indicate that energy-saving policies and green financial policies significantly inhibit the formation of the green innovation bubble in power industry chain enterprises. Specifically, these policies curb the green innovation bubble via three channels: an innovation incentive management mechanism, a peer imitation and convergence mechanism, and an industrial chain technology spillover mechanism. Upstream enterprises exhibit greater sensitivity to direct regulatory measures and backward technology spillovers from energy-saving and green finance policies, whereas midstream enterprises are more reliant on peer carbon emission pressure. The findings are validated through cross-verification among DDML, mechanism analysis, and interpretable analysis. The results provide empirical evidence and policy implications for optimizing energy-saving and green finance policies and for precisely deflating the green innovation bubble.