A Systems Approach to Forecasting

“We have become increasingly aware that our businesses and societies are embedded in complex systems – the economic system, the climate system, and so on – which are globally linked and may be susceptible to sudden change. Forecasting tools developed for the demands of classical astronomy are not useful for these situations and can be devastating when taken too seriously (as when they are adopted in the risk models of banks). We therefore need to complement our existing forecasting methods with ones derived from a systems-forecasting approach. Most of the tools for systems forecasting are already available and, tied into a coherent approach, they will offer a robust and attractive alternative to traditional methods. We may not be able to predict the exact timing of the next crisis, but atleast we will be better at evaluating the risk – and perhaps we can even learn to prevent it in the first place.” Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009