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Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts

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  • Dilek Onkal
  • M. Sinan Gonul

Abstract

Both the providers and the users of forecasts appear to view judgmental adjustments as a sign of caring about the forecast. Although fine tunings are expected to increase practitioner satisfaction, adjustments may sometimes backfire and reduce forecast quality. Dilek and Sinan recommend that practitioners use caution in making adjustments, that they rely on support tools, and that they try to understand the motivations and expectations behind the adjustment process.. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Dilek Onkal & M. Sinan Gonul, 2005. "Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 1, pages 13-17, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:13-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
    2. Ă–nkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.
    3. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    4. Syntetos, Aris A. & Kholidasari, Inna & Naim, Mohamed M., 2016. "The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: In or out of context?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 853-863.

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