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Survival and Default of Original Issue High-Yield Bonds

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  • Thomas Moeller
  • Carlos A. Molina

Abstract

We study the default behavior of original issue high-yield bonds to answer the open question of how the probability of default changes over time. We use a flexible econometric method, the Cox proportional hazard, to model the default behavior of junk bonds over their life. The method allows us to include the impact of issue and issuer characteristics on the probability of and the time to default in the estimation. Using a large comprehensive sample, we find that the bonds face a constantly increasing default risk over time, with the most significant increase beyond four years after issuance.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Moeller & Carlos A. Molina, 2003. "Survival and Default of Original Issue High-Yield Bonds," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:fma:fmanag:moellermolina03
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Donna Dudney & Thomas Zorn & John Geppert, 2011. "Financial disclosure, investor protection and stock market behavior: an international comparison," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 181-205, August.
    2. Cioroianu, Iulia & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2021. "The differential impact of corporate blockchain-development as conditioned by sentiment and financial desperation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean‐Guy Simonato, 2010. "Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 707-731, June.

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