Determinants of Cargo Handling Performance in Türkiye Ports: Time Series Analysis of Foreign Trade, Price Dynamics, and Global Uncertainties

This study aims to investigate the interactions between the cargo handling performance of Turkish ports and macroeconomic as well as global risk variables through multivariate time series analyses. The objective is to reveal the structural dynamics of port operations, long-term cointegration relationships, and the system’s responses to external shocks. Using Principal Component Analysis, the variables identified in the study were reduced to four structural factors: foreign trade and logistics capacity, pricing structures, global economic uncertainties, and operational factors related to transit transportation. The findings indicate the existence of at least three cointegration relationships within the system. Accordingly, a Vector Error Correction Model was constructed to analyze how deviations from the equilibrium are corrected in the short run. Furthermore, Impulse Response Functions were employed to evaluate the temporal effects of external shocks on the identified components. The results demonstrate that cargo handling performance in Turkish ports is shaped predominantly by factors representing foreign trade volume, logistics capacity, and structures sensitive to international price movements. These factors exhibit strong and rapid automatic adjustment mechanisms in response to short-term shocks. It was also observed that the factor representing global economic uncertainty tends to increase port activity during periods of heightened uncertainty, with this effect extending into the long term. Overall, the study presents an analytically grounded framework that structurally models the responses of port cargo handling performance to external shocks, offering a scientific basis for the formulation of port policies, infrastructure investments, and logistics strategies.