The Forecasting of Health Expenditure in Türkiye Using ARIMA Method

Human capital is the sum of the knowledge and skills acquired by an individual during his/her life. This study starts from the hypothesis that health investments affect the development and development of society in the context of protecting the knowledge and skills acquired by a person with the concept of human capital. The study aims to project the government health expenditures made on health services in Türkiye. The existence of a society with a high level of health positively affects economic development, progress, and growth. A high level of well-being increases the demand for health services and increases spending in the health sector. In this study, the government health expenditures spent from the central budget in Türkiye are estimated using the ARIMA (10,1,1) model. In the analysis carried out with 234 observations, the total monthly government health expenditures data based on provinces taken from the accounting information system of the Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance are used. In the study, where the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied and monthly data covering the period 2004:M01-2023:M06 are used, government health expenditures are estimated to increase over the next three years and to increase to 380 billion TL in 2023, 538 billion TL in 2024, and 694 billion TL in 2025. On the other hand, it is estimated that the realized public health expenditures will increase to approximately 27 billion 679 million TL in 2023, 30 billion 756 million TL in 2024, and 32 billion 530 million TL in 2025.