The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Unemployment Rates: Differences in Difference Analysis for TRC1 Region

This study investigates the effects of Syrian refugees in TRC1 region, covering Gaziantep, Kilis and Adıyaman provinces, on unemployment rates in the region with the Difference Differences Method. One of the main assumptions in order to compare the experiment group and the control group in the double differences analysis is that the analyzed shock or policy has no effect on the control group. However, this assumption is that Syrians to be in all provinces in Turkey has become more difficult on the fact. The difference of the study from the relevant literature is that the refugees take into account the effect of spreading to all provinces and try to reduce the biased in the coefficients with the Synthetic Control Group. In empirical analysis, the effects of the refugees on unemployment rates into formal sectors were calcıulated in that labor are classified in age, gender and education level. Especially since 2015, the increase in the number of the refugees and the low unemployment rates of the refugees in the TRC1 region cause a debate about substituting the native labor. Although the employment of the refugees in the informal sectors, at first glance, prevents the substitution of the native labor in the formal sectors, it was observed that the unskilled native labor faced substitution and withdrew from the labor market. On the other hand, skilled labor was found to be positively affected by the refugees entering the labor market.