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The Ins and Outs of Long-Term Unemployment

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The recent rise in long-term unemployment is almost entirely accounted for by a decline in unemployment outflow rates, especially the rate at which unemployed workers find jobs. Inflows into unemployment from employment remain low by historical standards, indicating that the rise is not driven by increased layoffs. Outflow rates have fallen most for workers already unemployed 27 weeks or longer, widening the duration gap and signaling that current dynamics are different because such widening has previously only occurred if the economy was in a recession.

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  • Katrina Borovickova & Claudia Macaluso, 2026. "The Ins and Outs of Long-Term Unemployment," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 26(25), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreb:103606
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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2026/eb_26-25
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