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Business Cycles: Is the Current Economic Environment Different?

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Abstract

Post-1988 unemployment cycles are significantly longer than earlier ones: 18.4 months for pre-1988 cycles, and 30 months for post-1988. The current cycle has been especially gradual, with unemployment rising steadily for 33 months — the longest on record without a recession following. In particular, the current cycle is atypical in that the sustained increase in unemployment occurs while GDP growth is, instead, strongly positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Macaluso, 2026. "Business Cycles: Is the Current Economic Environment Different?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 26(07), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreb:102815
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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2026/eb_26-07
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