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Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Hornstein
  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • John Mullin

Abstract

Demographic forces have profoundly shaped the dynamics of U.S. labor force participation and unemployment over the past forty years. Recognizing the importance of these employment indicators for the conduct of monetary policy, this Economic Brief explores how they have been influenced by the U.S. population's changing gender, educational, and age profile. Based on the authors' estimates, the trend U.S. unemployment rate will decline to 4.3 percent over the next ten years as the population continues to age and increase its educational attainment.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mullin, 2019. "Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue September.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreb:00080
    as

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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2019/eb_19-09
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