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Have Yield Curve Inversions Become More Likely?

Author

Listed:
  • Renee Courtois Haltom
  • Elaine Wissuchek
  • Alexander L. Wolman

Abstract

The recent flattening of the yield curve has raised concerns that a recession is around the corner. Such concerns stem partly from the fact that yield curve inversions have preceded each of the past seven recessions. However, other factors affect the yield curve's shape besides the expected future health of the economy. In particular, a low term premium ? as has been observed in recent years ? makes yield curve inversions more likely even if the risk of recession has not increased at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Renee Courtois Haltom & Elaine Wissuchek & Alexander L. Wolman, 2018. "Have Yield Curve Inversions Become More Likely?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreb:00071
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    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_brief/2018/pdf/eb_18-12.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. DRAGOE Sebastian Ilie & OPREAN-STAN Camelia, 2020. "Is The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Broken? Time For People'S Quantitative Easing," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 72(3), pages 29-43, November.

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