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Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time

Author

Listed:
  • Jaeheung Bae
  • Taeyoung Doh

Abstract

Measuring the current state of the U.S. economy in real time is an important but challenging task for monetary policymakers. The most comprehensive measure of the state of the economy?real gross domestic product?is available at a relatively low frequency (quarterly) and with a significant delay (one month). To obtain more timely assessments of the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has developed a GDP tracking model that combines new econometric methods with two conventional approaches to estimating GDP. {{p}} Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae review the Kansas City Fed model?s underlying details and illustrate its performance by comparing the model?s tracking estimates to those from other real-time tracking models. Their results suggest the Kansas City Fed model provides a useful tool for policymakers by combining estimates and forecasts from factor and accounting-based models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaeheung Bae & Taeyoung Doh, 2019. "Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00079
    DOI: 10.18651/ER/3q19DoeBae
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    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/317/2019-Tracking%20U.S.%20GDP%20in%20Real%20Time.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Conditions; Gross Domestic Product; Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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