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What Does Everything Besides the Unemployment Rate Tell Us About Labor Market Tightness?

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Abstract

Between March 2022 and June 2023, the unemployment rate, the most commonly used gauge of labor market tightness, remained in a narrow range between 3.4% and 3.7%. Yet, over this period, nominal wage growth increased to unusually high levels and then moderated, though it remains at a historically high rate. The disparity between a relatively constant unemployment rate and large movements in nominal wage growth has led to a divide in public discourse, with some seeing low unemployment and strong wage growth as a sufficient sign of the strength of the labor market and others concerned that the consistently low unemployment rate suggests labor market strength has plateaued and might be susceptible to a rapid deterioration.

Suggested Citation

  • Levi Bognar & R. Jason Faberman & Elizabeth Kepner & Emma LaGuardia, 2023. "What Does Everything Besides the Unemployment Rate Tell Us About Labor Market Tightness?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 0, pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:97520
    DOI: 10.21033/cfl-2023-491
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; Unemployment; Human capital; Wages; labor costs; Vacancies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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