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What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Stephie Fried
  • Tobin Graf
  • Simar Malhotra
  • Sanjay R. Singh

Abstract

Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s business. Aggregating survey responses provides an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with actual core consumer price index inflation. Survey responses collected before and during the recent oil shock imply that core inflation could remain elevated this year if the historical relationship between financial officer expectations and realized core inflation persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephie Fried & Tobin Graf & Simar Malhotra & Sanjay R. Singh, 2026. "What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(11), pages 1-6, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:103117
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Gourio & Kavitya Sarma, 2025. "Forecasting Inflation During the Pandemic: Who Got It Right?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 513, pages 1-11, September.
    2. Francois de Soyres & Avani Pradhan & Zina Saijid, 2026. "Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic?," FEDS Notes 2026-03-30-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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