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Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise

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  • Michael D. Plante
  • Mine K. Yücel

Abstract

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look at evidence from the physical market for oil and conclude that fundamentals, and not speculation, were behind the dramatic rise and fall in oil prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the futures market.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2011. "Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 6(oct).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddel:y:2011:i:oct:n:v.6no.11
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    1. Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2011. "Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 6(oct).
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    2. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    3. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.

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    1. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.

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    Keywords

    Supply and demand; Inventories;

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