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Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals

Author

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  • Michael D. Plante
  • Mine K. Yücel

Abstract

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look for evidence in the futures market that would signal speculation primarily drove prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the physical market.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2011. "Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 6(oct).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddel:y:2011:i:oct:n:v.6no.10
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    Cited by:

    1. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.
    2. Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2011. "Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 6(oct).

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