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Efeitos de Crescimento e Bem-estar da Lei de Parceria Público-Privada no Brasil

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  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
  • Pereira, Ricardo A. de castro

Abstract

Este artigo utiliza um modelo dinâmico de equilíbrio geral para investigar os impactos de crescimento econômico e bem estar associados à política de parceria público-privada (PPP) no Brasil. Assume-se uma economia com capital privado e infra-estrutura pública e privada e um governo que, além de investir, arrecada impostos, recebe renda de seus serviços e transfere renda para os indivíduos. O modelo é calibrado para a economia brasileira utilizando metodologia padrão e buscando reproduzir os mecanismos da Lei 11.079, de dezembro de 2004, que criou a PPP no Brasil. As simulações indicam que o impacto potencial da Lei das PPPs sobre o crescimento e o bem estar é pouco significativo. No longo prazo, no melhor dos cenários, o produto estaria somente 5% acima de sua tendência atual. Se associada a uma política de investimento público financiado com redução de gastos correntes, o impacto poderia ser muito mais relevante. Entretanto, a redução temporária das transferências - que ficariam, na melhor das hipóteses, até 18 anos abaixo da tendência atual - configura-se como um sério impedimento político para este tipo de política.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pereira, Ricardo A. de castro, 2008. "Efeitos de Crescimento e Bem-estar da Lei de Parceria Público-Privada no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:62:y:2008:i:2:a:1027
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    Cited by:

    1. Werneck, Rogério L.F. & Irwin, Timothy & Sturzenegger, Federico & Perry, Guillermo & Servén, Luis & Mihov, Ilian & Giavazzi, Francesco & Blanchard, Olivier & Araújo, Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos & Sues, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth: Prudence or Abstinence?," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 356.
    2. Pereira, Ricardo A. de Castro & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 2010. "Avaliação dos Impactos Macro-Econômicos e de Bem-Estar da Reforma Tributária no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(2), June.
    3. Guillermo Perry & Luis Servén & Rodrigo Suescún, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth : Prudence or Abstinence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6818, September.

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