Growth, Mobility and Climate Policy: a Focus on the non-OECD

A focus on mobility, the kilometres travelled using light duty vehicles, and climate policy is motivated by the persistence of strong demand for personal mobility. Emissions have tended to be linked with population and economic growth which implies that a decoupling would need to occur for successful climate policy. Forecasts of population and income growth for non-OECD regions imply a significant challenge without such decoupling. A recent study that utilises the WITCH model shows that changes in the kilometres driven per year using light duty vehicles have a notable impact on investments in alternate transport options. As climate policy becomes more stringent, achieving abatement within increased mobility scenarios implies a rapid transition to electrified vehicles.