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Støednìdobá makroekonomická predikce makroekonomické modely v analytickém systému ÈNB

Author

Listed:
  • Jaromír Beneš
  • David Vávra
  • Jan Vlèek

Abstract

Úspìch cílování inflace spoèívá v systematické reakci mìnové politiky na významnìjší poruchy. K zajištìní systémového chování musí být monetární politika explicitnì založena na støednìdobém makroekonomickém rámci s dopøedu hledícím transmisním mechanizmem. Makroekonomické modely pøedstavují vhodný prostøedek k využití takového mechanizmu a k dosažení støednìdobé konzistence prognózy. Èlánek popisuje ètvrtletní predikèní model, který je nyní používán v Èeské národní bance, a jeho roli v prognostickém a analytickém systému banky.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromír Beneš & David Vávra & Jan Vlèek, 2002. "Støednìdobá makroekonomická predikce makroekonomické modely v analytickém systému ÈNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 52(4), pages 197-231, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:52:y:2002:i:4:p:197-231
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    makroekonomický model; predikce; cílování inflace; mìnová politika;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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