Economic Efficiency Estimation for Spatially Distributed Ferrous Metallurgy Projects

This study develops a modern economic analysis methodology for a comprehensive evaluation of investment projects within the ferrous metallurgy sector. The developed methodology is designed quantitatively assess the impact of investment projects implemented in a specific territory and characterized by technological interdependence. It enables the measurement in monetary terms of the social, budgetary, and financial efficiency of investments in the development of the metallurgical complex simultaneously at the macroeconomic, regional, and microeconomic levels under various government support options. The developed methods for assessing economic efficiency take into account the project’s impact on society as a whole, arising beyond its institutional framework through interactions with related enterprises in the form of indirect and additional tax effects. The methodology was adapted for the example of the Amurstal metallurgical plant modernization project as part of the development of the Far Eastern Metallurgical Region. The calculation results demonstrate high economic efficiency indicators for the project, with a net present value of 23 751 million rubles at a discount rate of 17.8%. To identify key efficiency drivers, a scenario analysis was conducted, taking into account optimization of raw material supply logistics and various forms of government support. The most promising scenario in terms of long-term strategic impact is a supply chain modernization based on sourcing hot briquetted iron from the Kimkano-Sutarsky GOK instead of the geographically remote Lebedinsky GOK. The results demonstrate the high practical value of the developed methodology for substantiating strategic investment decisions