System Modeling of the Regional Demographic Development

The article explores the population of a region as a complex, self-organizing socio-demographic system. It focuses on identifying the internal mechanisms that integrate heterogeneous groups into a whole and describing the emergent properties of this system. The objective is to develop a systemic model of a regional population that reveals the hierarchy of its qualities, structures internal and external contradictions, describes possible development trajectories, and identifies the system’s basic states. The research is based on an interdisciplinary approach that integrates the general methodological framework of synergetics (principles of non-linearity, bifurcations, attractors) and the categorical method of systems analysis called “Goals Sequence†. Goals sequence method (GSM) is used to operationalize basic categories: Object-Quality (the population as a whole), Sub-Qualities (socio-demographic groups), and Integrative Quality (the system-forming principle). As a result, the holistic model of a regional population has been developed. The system of its internal and external contradictions has been structured. Three development scenarios (progress, regress, isogress) are described, and four basic states of the system are identified (low-differentiated, competitive, growth, decline). A key finding is that the system’s integrity is determined not by the territory itself, but by the strength and adequacy of its Integrative Quality (common identity, effective institutions, dominant economic model). The results can be used by state and regional authorities for diagnosing demographic risks, developing spatial development strategies, and applying targeted management interventions aimed at shifting the system into the basin of attraction of a desired attractor. The combined synergetic-systemic approach allows for a transition from describing disparate demographic processes to the holistic modeling of a region. It reveals the internal logic of its development and provides a rigorous analytical framework for managing demographic dynamics