Agent-Based Modeling of Epidemics and Their Impact on the Economy of Russian Regions

The subject of this study is assessing impact of restrictive measures on the spread of epidemics, availability of medical care and economy of regions. The purpose of the study is to develop an appropriate tool based on agent-based and situational modeling methods, as well as to conduct series of experiments to predict spread of a virus with various combinations of anti-epidemic measures, and assess economic consequences of these measures. The developed agent-based model of epidemics is part of the MEBIUS software package, which reproduces population, employment, production and services, educational and budgetary systems. New functions in the model are regulation of morbidity through various restrictive measures and corresponding changes in the work of organizations and lifestyle (training, work, communication) of agent residents. Possible combinations of quarantine measures were grouped into scenarios of no restrictions, soft and hard restrictions observed by 40, 80 or 100% of residents. In the absence of restrictions, the number of cases reaches 22 million, of which 876 thousand deaths. Under soft restrictions, the number of cases drops to 4.5 million; deaths to 138 thousand. With full compliance with strict restrictions, there are less than a million cases and 26.5 thousand deaths. Under epidemic conditions, even without restrictions, the Russian economy is experiencing a decline of 2% of GDP. With restrictions, the decline is 2.6–4.4% of GDP, most noticeable in large cities (up to –5.9% of GRP). The introduced measures have the least impact on the economy of the North Caucasus Federal District