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Russian Crisis: Expectations Against Facts

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  • Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir

    (Economic Research Institute FEB RAS)

Abstract

2015–2016 turned out to be the period of the most prolonged decline in the latest Russian economic history (not counting the transformation crisis of the 1990s). By the end of 2016 there were signs of the end of the crisis, and in 2017 it seemed to have given grounds to believe that the crisis was overcome. To what extent have the system problems of the domestic economy really been overcome and external shocks, which acted as a catalyst for the structural and institutional failures that form the fundamental basis of the crisis, have been leveled? This article is devoted to the discussion of this question. The article analyzed expert estimates and statistics for 2017. It is shown that the expectations of overcoming the crisis are conflicting with objective indicators of economic dynamics. This is manifested in the following. First, in the low ability to self-generation of economic growth. Although the multiplier of output in the economy as a whole increased somewhat after the catastrophic decrease by 2000 compared to 1990 (to 1.35 against 2.0), it remains low (1.93). It is explained considerably by the primitiveness of the Russian economy that saw the decrease in the level of intra-industrial interactions and the length of added value chains at the beginning of the crisis compared to the beginning of 1980s, although the opposite is seen in the advanced economies. Second, the constant institutional shell that remains the biggest problematic sphere when looking at transition to economy of growth that generates the increase in the quality of life. The simultaneous solution to the two-part problem: saving the ‘stability’ of institutional and providing the dynamic development of economy and society – appears to be impossible

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir, 2018. "Russian Crisis: Expectations Against Facts," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 7-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:far:spaeco:y:2018:i:1:p:7-15
    DOI: 10.14530/se.2018.1.007-015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir, 2016. "Shocks and Institutions: The Paradoxes of Russian Crisis," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 7-13.
    2. Polterovich, V. & Popov, V., 2016. "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Industrial Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 192-198.
    3. V. V. Ivanter, 2016. "Strategy of transition to economic growth," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-4, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Gezevich Aganbegyan, 2019. "Development of the Far East: A National Program in the Context of National Projects," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 165-181.
    2. Olga Mikhailovna Prokapalo & Artyom Gennadyevich Isaev & Marina Gamilovna Mazitova & Denis Vladimirovich Suslov, 2018. "Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2017," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 92-133.
    3. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir, 2020. "Russian Economy: Between Crisis," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 7-23.
    4. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir, 2018. "‘Decree’ Economy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 8-16.
    5. Leonid Markovich Grigoryev & Pavlyushina Victoria Alexandrovna & Vlada Vladimirovna Brilliantova & Nesipli Mavlit-Alievna Kulaeva, 2019. "Models of Russian Economic Growth: Personal Consumption Trends," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 150-168.
    6. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir, 2020. "Pandemic Economy: The Russian Way," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 7-18.
    7. N. N. Mikheeva, 2020. "Economic Dynamics of Russian Regions: Crises and Ways to Restore Growth," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis; growth rates; structure; accumulation; consumption; external trade; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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