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Minskian Yaklaşımla Türkiye’de Finansal Kırılganlık

Author

Listed:
  • Seçil Aysed Kaya Bahçe

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada finansal kırılganlık Post Keynesyen yaklaşımla ele alınmış ve Türkiye ekonomisinde 1988-2010 yılları arasında finansal kırılganlığı tartışmak için Minskian finansal durum analizinden yola çıkılmıştır. Bunun için eklenti kar oranı, sermaye birikim hizi ve borçlanmanın maliyeti olan reel faiz haddi karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisinin söz konusu dönemde çeşitli alt periyodlarda farklı finansal durumlardan geçtiğini göstermektedir. Dönemin başında spekülatif finansmana durumunda olan Türkiye ekonomisi, 1992-1996 yılları arasında güvenli finansmana, 1997-2003 yılları arasında ise ponzi finansmana dayanmaktadır. 2004-2009 dönemine gelindiğinde ekonomi güvenli finansmana dayanırken 2010 yılında, sermaye birim hızı eklenti kar oranını geçmiş ve yeni bir spekülatif dönemin eşiğine gelinmiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Seçil Aysed Kaya Bahçe, 2014. "Minskian Yaklaşımla Türkiye’de Finansal Kırılganlık," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 25(90), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:25:y:2014:i:90:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.35310
    Note: [English Title] Financial Fragility in Turkey: A Minskian Approach [English Abstract] This study, depending on a Minskian framework, analyses financial fragility in Turkish economy from a Post Keynesian perspective for the period between 1988 and 2010. We compare incremental profit rate, rate of capital accumulation and the real interest rate which is the cost of borrowing. Results show that, throughout the period, Turkish economy experienced different states of financial fragility. Following a period of speculative finance at the beginning of the period, Turkish economy was hedged from 1992 to 1996 and moved to a phase of ponzi finance between 1997 and 2003. The 2004-2009 period was a period of hedged finance, however the rate of capital accumulation exceeded the incremental profit rate at 2010 indicating the onset of a new speculative phase. [English Keywords] Financial fragility, Post Keynesian economics, Minsky.
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    Keywords

    Finansal kırılganlık; Post Keynesyen İktisat; Minsky.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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