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Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Borç Krizindeki Yunanistan İle Bir Karşılaştırma

Author

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  • Belgin AKÇAY

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

Bir ekonominin performansının ölçülmesinde dikkate alınan önemli göstergeler arasında yer alan cari açık, bir ülke ekonomisinden yurt dışına yapılan net gelir transferini ifade etmektedir. Bir ekonomide süreklilik arz eden yüksek cari açıkların söz konusu ekonomiyi dış şoklara kırılgan yaptığı ve hatta krize yol açtığı genel olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu nedenle, bir ekonominin yüksek ve süreklilik arz eden cari açıklara sahip olması, ekonomide bir sorun olarak görülmektedir. Nitekim iktisat literatüründeki pek çok ampirik çalışma, yüksek ve devamlı cari açıkların gelişen ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerin riskinin artmasına yol açtığı ve krize girme olasılığının yükseldiğini teyit etmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinin mevcut durumu, 2009 yılının son çeyreğinde borç krizine giren Yunan ekonomisi ile karşılaştırılmakta ve Türkiye ekonomisinde cari açığın sürdürülebilir olup olmadığı değerlendirilmektedir. Bugün Türkiye ekonomisi, son yıllarda düzenli olarak yükselen cari açık/GSYİH oranı ile dünyanın en çok cari açık veren ülkeleri arasında yer almaktadır. Çalışmanın sonucunda Türkiye ekonomisinin, cari açıklarını sürdürebilir olma özelliğini giderek kaybetttiği ve Yunan ekonomisinin kriz öncesindeki pek çok ekonomik göstergesinin trendinin Türkiye ekonomisinin göstergelerinin son yıllardaki trendi büyük ölçüde benzerlik arz ettiği görülmüştür.

Suggested Citation

  • Belgin AKÇAY, 2012. "Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Borç Krizindeki Yunanistan İle Bir Karşılaştırma," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 23(84), pages 1-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:23:y:2012:i:84:p:1-38
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.34104
    Note: [English Title] Current Account Deficit Sustainability in Turkey: A Comparison with Greece in Debt Crisis [English Abstract] Current account deficit, which is one of the indicators of economic performance of a country, means that an economy transfers net income abroad. Generally, the long term and persistent current account deficits are not wanted since it is generally accepted that such kind of deficits and their financing methods increase the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks, and even, can cause crisis. In fact, in the economic literature, there are many empirical studies which have confirmed that long-term current account deficits can cause serious problems in the economy and increase the risk of a country, and make it more vulnerable in emerging and developing economies. Recently, Turkey with the current deficit / GDP ratio, that increases gradually, has become one of the countries having high current account deficits. This case caused that the level of its current deficit and its sustainability has made one of the most widely debated issues in recent years in Turkey. In this paper, firstly, the sources of the current account deficits of Turkey will be explained. Then, the current case of Turkish economy is compared with the example of Greece in which sovereign debt crisis exploded in the last quarter of 2009. Finally, the sustainability of the current account deficits of Turkey is assessed. The paper shows that the current account deficits of Turkey's economy is getting away to be sustainability. Also, it finds that today, the trend of many economic indicators of Greece before crisis is similar to that of Turkish economy. [English Keywords] Current account deficit, current deficit sustainability, Turkey, Greece.
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    Keywords

    Cari açık; cari açığın sürdürülebilirliği; Türkiye; Yunanistan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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