The COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary reduction in the quantity and quality of education, with school closures of varying degrees implemented across the globe

This chapter reviews the literature on learning deficits in compulsory education caused by the pandemic and their possible economic impact. Studies from different euro area and EU Member States show, on average, significant learning deficits in primary and secondary education, equivalent to almost 2 months of learning progress during a regular school year. The impact of the pandemic on learning outcomes varies widely by country as well as by students’ age and socio-economic background. Labour market outcomes of recent graduates are historically strong, supported by a context of tight labour markets, but the long-term economic impact of learning deficits is likely to be non-negligible. Existing studies project small productivity losses for the coming years as a result of these learning deficits, but a larger impact in the long term, peaking in the second half of the 21st century, when all affected cohorts of students will have entered the labour market. According to the studies surveyed in this chapter, estimates of the aggregate, real-GDP effects of these learning deficits range between -0.1% and -1% by 2050, compared to a baseline without any learning deficits. These estimates are based on: (i) an average learning deficit of roughly one fifth of a school year; (ii) the number of affected cohorts of students corresponding to around one third of the future labour force at most; and (iii) an assumption that these losses are not recovered (20)