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Crescimento econômico secular no Brasil, modelo de Thirlwall e termos de troca

Author

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  • Holland, Márcio
  • Vieira, Fabrício de Assis C.

Abstract

Long-run economic growth in Brazil, Thirlwall´s model and terms of trade ? Explaining the Brazilian economic growth performance during the 20th is a challenging task to academics. As shown, Brazil had already experienced faster growth and recently it is far from such belle époque. Most explanations are based on conventional frameworks. This paper assesses the Balance-of-Payments constraint model to Brazilian economic growth in the period 1900-2005, highlighting the importance of the terms of trade. The results show, first, that the terms of trade are significant in the estimation of import demand function and change the income elasticity, especially in the first period of the sample (1900-1970), and, second, when the simplest Thirlwall?s model is controlled by terms of trade, it seems that such variable is important through import growth, which cause changes in economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Holland, Márcio & Vieira, Fabrício de Assis C., 2008. "Crescimento econômico secular no Brasil, modelo de Thirlwall e termos de troca," Revista Economia e Sociedade, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), vol. 33, pages 1-30, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:euc:ancoec:v:33:y:2008:p:17-46
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    File URL: http://www.eco.unicamp.br/docdownload/publicacoes/instituto/revistas/economia-e-sociedade/V17-F2-S33/EconomiaSociedade33Artigo2.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Daniela Almeida Raposo Torres, 2008. "National innovation system, competitiveness and economic growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td325, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    2. Jayme Jr., Frederico G. & Prates Romero, João & Silveira, Fabrício, 2011. "Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazilian economic growth; Terms of trade; Balance-of-Payments Constraint; Thirlwall?s law.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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