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Minute-Level Power-Quality, Machine-Learning Forecasts and Techno-Economic Assessment of a 100 kWp PV-Battery-EV Fast-Charging Microgrid in a Caribbean Small Island State

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  • Curtis Boodoo

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) remain locked into diesel generation and fragile low-voltage grids. This study integrates a four-month, fifteen- minute SCADA record from a 100 kWp PV array, lithium-ion battery energy storage system ( BESS) and 50 kW DC fast-charger at a Trinidad and Tobago filling station to quantify power-quality losses, economics, and forecasting. Phase-resolved IEEE-519 analysis shows current total harmonic distortion (THD) breaching the 5% limit in 35%–45% of intervals, with 95th-percentile distortion peaking at 11%, triggering inverter curtailment. Consequently the dry-season specific yield is only 1.72 kWh kWp−1 day−1 (20.6 MWh total) and Net Present Value (NPV) stands at –US$0.72 M. K-means clustering isolates a “heavy-harmonic” mode affecting 15% of operation, while Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) 15-min-ahead forecasts achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE)= 6.1 kW—over 50% lower error than Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX). Modelling indicates that active harmonic filtering, bi-weekly cleaning and solar-aligned electric vehicle (EV) tariffs can lift annual yield by >20%, flip NPV to +US$0.18 M and avoid 2.9 kt CO2 over 30 years. These minute-level results provide the first Caribbean evidence that power-quality governance, machine-learning control, and tariff reform jointly unlock bankable PV-BESS-EV hubs, informing grid codes, and -mobility policy across SIDS.

Suggested Citation

  • Curtis Boodoo, 2026. "Minute-Level Power-Quality, Machine-Learning Forecasts and Techno-Economic Assessment of a 100 kWp PV-Battery-EV Fast-Charging Microgrid in a Caribbean Small Island State," European Journal of Energy Research, European Open Science, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:epw:energy:v:6:y:2026:i:1:id:7186
    DOI: 10.24018/ejenergy.2026.6.1.7186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olukorede Tijani Adenuga & Senthil Krishnamurthy, 2023. "Economic Power Dispatch of a Grid-Tied Photovoltaic-Based Energy Management System: Co-Optimization Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Curtis Boodoo, 2024. "The True Cost of Off-Grid Solar Power: Evaluating Solar Energy in a Dense Tropical Forest," European Journal of Energy Research, European Open Science, vol. 4(2), pages 17-27, May.
    3. Hagreaves Kumba & Oludolapo A. Olanrewaju & Ratidzo Pasipamire, 2024. "Integration of Renewable Energy Technologies for Sustainable Development in South Africa: A Focus on Grid-Connected PV Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Nicola Blasuttigh & Simone Negri & Alessandro Massi Pavan & Enrico Tironi, 2023. "Optimal Sizing and Environ-Economic Analysis of PV-BESS Systems for Jointly Acting Renewable Self-Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, January.
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