The Future of Northern Canadian Land Use in the Age of Climate Change

Climate change and land use alterations are interdependent and change in one causes a change in the other. Climate change is projected to expand agricultural lands especially at higher latitudes like northern regions of Canada. However, the spatiotemporal extent of this land use change is not clear and will be affected by multiple factors. This research provides a descriptive modelling and analysis of climate change-driven agricultural expansions (CCDAEs) in northern Canada. We discuss the consequences of CCDAE progress in Canada’s North in terms of climate change-driven soil loss, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and associated environmental impacts. Results revealed that just over 135 million hectares of northern Canada’s lands could change to agricultural lands through different CCDAE scenarios in four timeframes between 2025–2100. The scenarios were categorized to address Indigenous sovereignty on their treaty lands and sustainability of peatlands and mountain areas along with the most likely CCDAE patterns. The CCDAE is projected to cause 29− 185 × 103 megaton (MT) soil loss, and 1.7− 8.6 × 105 MT carbon dioxide equivalent GHG emissions in minimal/maximal situations. This huge CCDAEs in Canada’s north will have considerable footprints on the environment, local communities, climate change mitigation plans, global food security, and local/national economic opportunities. Data and analyses can be used by provincial/territorial governments, policymakers, and environmental planners for future land use changes planning and infrastructure and rural development.