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The onset of peace


  • Ron Smith

    () (Birkbeck College, University of London)

  • Ali Tasiran

    () (Birkbeck College, University of London)


Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's Conflict Termination Dataset, 1946-2007, we investigate determinants of war duration—how long war lasts before the onset of peace. We provide an exposition of the nature of the data and of the transformations statistical issues involved in quantifying the dynamics of conflict, in particular the onset of peace. Various duration models are used to analyze the length of wars that ended with victory and peace or cease fires or show low activity. Multispell Cox proportional hazards models and single-spell log-logistic hazard models suggest that major wars are of shorter duration than minor wars, internal wars last longer than wars between states, and peace comes quicker in Europe than in other regions. We find only small differences in the determinants of terminated wars and wars with low activities or no activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Smith & Ali Tasiran, 2012. "The onset of peace," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 5-14, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:7:y:2012:i:1:p:5-14

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    Cited by:

    1. J Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2016. "Determinants of Civil War and Excess Zeroes," SALDRU Working Papers 191, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    2. repec:epc:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:21-31 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Peace; war; duration models; hazard models;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War


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