French defense spending: War economy a la francaise

The article analyzes the evolution of French defense spending through the lens of President Macron’s declaration of a transition to a “war economy” following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite the adoption of the 2024–2030 Military Programming Law, which entails a historically large nominal increase in defense spending, France’s budgetary trajectory remains constrained by long-standing fiscal pressures and lags behind most European peers in relative growth. While recent budgets prioritize equipment modernization and industrial adaptation, they largely preserve the existing force structure, thereby limiting gains in mass and resilience. The defense industrial base has begun to scale up production, notably in ammunition and major platforms, but adaptation remains gradual and largely industry-driven. At the same time, high operational tempo and persistent overseas and domestic deployments generate risks of overstretch and declining readiness. France is risking a long-term erosion of its defense model and credibility within NATO.